<< Elections 2011 – Voter Turnout | Elections 2011 - Act Party Vote >>

Elections 2011 – United Future Party Vote

Monday, 28 November 2011 by Andrew McMillan

Peter_Dunne It was a tough election for United Future. Peter Dunne did well to retain his Ohariu seat but the party failed to gain momentum leading into the election. I'd suggest that the two main causes of this were the lack mainstream media coverage (the teapot saga didn't help here) along with polling showing Dunne was going to struggle to retain his seat.

In 2008, United Future gained around 20,000 party votes, which was around 0.9% of the party votes cast. This slumped to around 12,000, or 0.6% in this election.

Note that the following analysis is based 2008 data and preliminary results from the 2011 election.

Biggest Party Vote by Electorate

Rank	Electorate	Candidate	Party (%)	Change
1	Ohariu	DUNNE, Peter	1.83	n/c
2	West Coast-Tasman	GRAF, Clyde	1.42	+7
3	Taranaki-King Country	ROGERS, Victoria	1.09	+36
4	Rimutaka		0.99	n/c
5	Nelson	STEVENS, Doug	0.99	+9
6	Taupo	SIMMONS, Alan	0.93	+32
7	Hutt South	EADDY, Rob	0.91	-4
8	Kaikoura		0.91	+15
9	East Coast	GIBSON, Martin	0.91	-7
10	Rangitata	McMILLAN, Andrew	0.87	+22

Not surprising to see Ohariu at the top once more, and the West Coast vote rose on the back of a spirited anti-1080 campaign. Victoria Rogers and Alan Simmons did well in their electorates, helping their electorates move up 36 and 32 places respectively.

Smallest Party Vote by Electorate

Rank	Electorate	Party (%)	Change
61	Mangere	0.23	-31
62	Auckland Central	0.22	+1
63	Manurewa	0.21	-3
64	Hauraki-Waikato	0.18	+2
65	Manukau East	0.16	-1
66	Te Tai Hauauru	0.14	+3
67	Waiariki	0.12	+1
68	Tamaki Makaurau	0.11	-1
69	Ikaroa-Rawhiti	0.09	+2
70	Te Tai Tokerau	0.08	n/c

Apart from a large drop-off in Mangere, not much has changed at the bottom.

Biggest increase in Party Vote by Electorate

Rank	Electorate	Candidate	Party (%)	Change
12	Waitaki		0.84	+38
3	Taranaki-King Country	ROGERS, Victoria	1.09	+36
26	Tukituki		0.66	+36
6	Taupo	SIMMONS, Alan	0.93	+32
30	Napier		0.60	+31
14	Clutha-Southland		0.80	+29
25	Wairarapa		0.67	+29
10	Rangitata	McMILLAN, Andrew	0.87	+22
22	Coromandel	GRAF, Steve	0.70	+22
33	Bay of Plenty	CARTER, Brian H	0.58	+18

It's interesting to see United Future had big gains in some electorates where no candidate was standing. My campaign in Rangitata would have had some impact on Waitaki (as my advertising and newspaper coverage spills into this electorate), but I expect the main reason is that these electorates liked our recreation policies.

Biggest decrease in Party Vote by Electorate

Rank	Electorate	Candidate	Party (%)	Change
36	Christchurch East	MILLER, Johnny	0.54	-16
53	New Lynn		0.39	-18
27	Palmerston North	EUSOFF, Sultan	0.65	-19
41	North Shore	LIGHT, Damian	0.49	-19
46	Port Hills		0.44	-19
52	Mt Roskill	MOCKRIDGE, Bryan	0.39	-21
51	Te Atatu		0.40	-22
42	Pakuranga		0.47	-23
61	Mangere		0.23	-31
54	Maungakiekie		0.39	-42

United Future Party Vote by Electorate – Full Results

Rank	Electorate	Candidate	Party (%)	Change
62	Auckland Central		0.22	+1
33	Bay of Plenty	CARTER, Brian H	0.58	+18
59	Botany	PARKASH, Ram	0.30	-7
37	Christchurch Central		0.54	+10
36	Christchurch East	MILLER, Johnny	0.54	-16
14	Clutha-Southland		0.80	+29
22	Coromandel	GRAF, Steve	0.70	+22
32	Dunedin North	GEORGE, Pete	0.59	-11
39	Dunedin South		0.51	+7
9	East Coast	GIBSON, Martin	0.91	-7
47	East Coast Bays		0.44	-2
58	Epsom		0.33	-3
16	Hamilton East		0.78	-10
19	Hamilton West		0.73	-6
64	Hauraki-Waikato		0.18	+2
43	Helensville		0.46	-3
40	Hunua		0.51	-3
7	Hutt South	EADDY, Rob	0.91	-4
69	Ikaroa-Rawhiti		0.09	+2
21	Ilam	ROBERTS, Vanessa	0.71	-16
13	Invercargill		0.83	+13
8	Kaikoura		0.91	+15
23	Mana		0.70	-16
61	Mangere		0.23	-31
65	Manukau East		0.16	-1
63	Manurewa		0.21	-3
54	Maungakiekie		0.39	-42
57	Mt Albert		0.33	n/c
52	Mt Roskill	MOCKRIDGE, Bryan	0.39	-21
30	Napier		0.60	+31
5	Nelson	STEVENS, Doug	0.99	+9
53	New Lynn		0.39	-18
44	New Plymouth		0.45	+14
41	North Shore	LIGHT, Damian	0.49	-19
31	Northcote	DROMGOOL, Steven	0.60	-13
45	Northland		0.45	+11
1	Ohariu	DUNNE, Peter	1.83	n/c
20	Otaki	BROWN, Diane	0.72	-5
42	Pakuranga		0.47	-23
27	Palmerston North	EUSOFF, Sultan	0.65	-19
49	Papakura		0.43	-13
46	Port Hills		0.44	-19
10	Rangitata	McMILLAN, Andrew	0.87	+22
11	Rangitikei		0.84	-1
4	Rimutaka		0.99	n/c
56	Rodney		0.38	-14
29	Rongotai		0.62	+4
17	Rotorua		0.78	+17
24	Selwyn		0.70	-13
50	Tamaki		0.42	-9
68	Tamaki Makaurau		0.11	-1
3	Taranaki-King Country	ROGERS, Victoria	1.09	+36
6	Taupo	SIMMONS, Alan	0.93	+32
35	Tauranga		0.56	+18
51	Te Atatu		0.40	-22
66	Te Tai Hauauru		0.14	+3
70	Te Tai Tokerau		0.08	n/c
60	Te Tai Tonga		0.27	+5
26	Tukituki		0.66	+36
67	Waiariki		0.12	+1
15	Waikato		0.80	+13
34	Waimakariri		0.56	-9
25	Wairarapa		0.67	+29
55	Waitakere		0.38	-7
12	Waitaki		0.84	+38
28	Wellington Central		0.64	-11
2	West Coast-Tasman	GRAF, Clyde	1.42	+7
48	Whanganui		0.43	+11
38	Whangarei		0.53	+11
18	Wigram	GASKIN, Ian Camden	0.74	-2