Elections 2011 - National Party Vote

In 2008, National enjoyed 44.9% of the party vote. To increase that to 47.3% this election should be a more than satisfactory result for the National Party. Leading up to the election, National were consistently polling over 50%, but a drop-off was expected as media scrutiny naturally increased throughout the election period.

For their campaign, National led a simple 5-point "brighter future" plan, which included policy around rebuilding Christchurch, and had John Key at the fore of their advertising. Their policy to sell down assets was hotly debated across the Country, opposition parties attempted to gain traction on the back of the Rena grounding, and Labour's Phil Goff put up a reasonable challenge to Key in the televised debates. But ultimately, Key and the National Party ended the campaign on top, earning the right to re-from the Government for another term.

So let's take a look at where their support came from, in terms of party vote by Electorate. Note that the following analysis is based 2008 data and preliminary results from the 2011 election.

Biggest Party Vote by Electorate

The top ten electorates by party vote shows that National well and truly maintains its support through the affluent Auckland electorates. The only two electorates not in the Auckland region are deputy-leader Bill English's Clutha-Southland and Amy Adams' Selwyn electorates. Adams did well, helping to bring Selwyn up six rankings.

Smallest Party Vote by Electorate

There's virtually no change in National's ten worst performing electorates. They comprise of the seven Maori electorates, where National no longer stand candidates, and three less affluent Auckland seats; which also happen to be Labour's three strongest seats.

Biggest increase in Party Vote by Electorate

Looking at the biggest increases, it's very evident that Canterbury voters have responded well to both National's handling of the Christchurch earthquakes and their plan for re-building Christchurch. In 2008 Labour gained more party votes than National in Christchurch East, Chirstchurch Central and Wigram. This election saw that turned around.

Tamaki stands alone as the only North Island electorate in the biggest improvers.

Biggest decrease in Party Vote by Electorate

As for the biggest decreases, Mt Roskill slid down the rankings on the back of a big improvement from Labour's Phil Goff and Northland also lost out on the retirement of National's John Carter.

Other notable ranking losses came in Waitakere, where Labour's Carmel Sepuloni gave Paula Bennett a very close electorate race (although Bennett managed to extend the party vote majority to 954 votes), and New Lynn where Tim Groser managed to make some ground on David Cunliffe's party and electorate vote, but not enough to stave off a drop of eight ranking points.

National Party Vote by Electorate – Full Results