Elections 2011 - Labour Party Vote

Monday, 12 December 2011 by Andrew McMillan

Phil_GoffLabour's party vote sunk to 27.48% in this election, which is well down on last year's 33.99%. The reason's for their demise can be summed up under the headings of leadership, negative campaigning, the party list, and de-branding.

Phil Goff's leadership leading into and throughout the campaign was poor. His memory and his honesty were constantly called into question and he attacked his opponents in areas which left him open for accusations of hypocrisy.

Instead of concentrating on selling their own campaign, Labour spent the bulk of their time, and advertising money, negatively campaigning on National's policy. There's no doubt that Labour's 'No Asset Sales' campaign stirred up some support, but as often happens with negative campaigning, that support didn't go to the party which was negatively campaigning; instead it went to the Greens and NZ First.

Labour's party list was contentious, even within the ranks of Labour itself. The list presented a party that had not learned from their prior election loss. As a result it saw some sitting MP's who could see their only chance of getting back in  via their electoral seat, drop campaigning for the party vote altogether.

So let's take a look at Labour's party vote support by electorate. Note that the following analysis is based 2008 data and preliminary results from the 2011 election.

Biggest Party Vote by Electorate

Rank Electorate Candidate Party (%) Change
1 Mangere SIO, Sua William 71.21 n/c
2 Manukau East ROBERTSON, Ross 65.56 n/c
3 Manurewa WALL, Louisa 55.85 +2
4 Ikaroa-Rawhiti HOROMIA, Parekura 49.53 -1
5 Hauraki-Waikato MAHUTA, Nanaia 46.49 -1
6 Mt Roskill GOFF, Phil 43.16 +11
7 Te Tai Hauauru PEKE-MASON, Soraya Waiata 42.36 -1
8 Tamaki Makaurau JONES, Shane 41.35 -1
9 Te Tai Tonga TIRIKATENE, Rino 38.88 -1
10 Te Atatu TWYFORD, Phil 37.98 +9

Sua William Sio had an outstanding result in Mangere, picking up 71.2% of the party vote, up 9.6% from 2008. Although this rise can be ascribed to the demise of Taito Phillip Field and his Pacific Party (which gained 10.7% of the party vote in 2008).

Labour's traditional powerhouse seats in South Auckland and the Maori seats feature in the top ten. Two notable improvers include Labour Party Leader Phil Goff and Te Atatu's Phil Twyford.

Smallest Party Vote by Electorate

Rank Electorate Candidate Party (%) Change
61 Clutha-Southland LOO, Tat 16.15 -3
62 Selwyn McLEAN, Jo 16.02 -7
63 Waikato SUTTON, Kate 16.01 -3
64 Taranaki-King Country BARKER, Rick 15.59 n/c
65 Hunua HILLS, Richard 15.45 +4
66 Epsom PARKER, David 15.28 +2
67 Tauranga MAHUTA-COYLE, Deborah 14.60 -8
68 Helensville GREENBROOK-HELD, Piers Jeremy 13.88 +2
69 Bay of Plenty DEVOY-HEENA, Carol 13.34 -2
70 Rodney ROSE, Christine 13.23 -4

Labour's bottom ten list, a mix of rural and affable electorates, is where National is traditionally strongest. Rodney was their worst performing electorate, which saw gains for the Greens, NZ First and the newly formed Conservative Party.

Biggest increase in Party Vote by Electorate

Rank Electorate Candidate Party (%) Change
13 Maungakiekie BEAUMONT, Carol 36.78 +12
6 Mt Roskill GOFF, Phil 43.16 +11
14 Waitakere SEPULONI, Carmel 36.47 +10
46 Botany WU, Chao-Fu 23.51 +10
10 Te Atatu TWYFORD, Phil 37.98 +9
39 Papakura MIKA, Jerome 26.10 +9
15 New Lynn CUNLIFFE, David 36.34 +7
12 Mt Albert SHEARER, David 37.34 +6
41 Northcote GILLON, Paula 24.80 +6
55 Pakuranga KAUSHAL, Sunny 18.32 +6

Carol Beaumont did an excellent job in Maungakiekie, picking up 12 spots. As noted above, Phil Goff put in a good showing, along with the two new leadership aspirants Cunliffe and Shearer.

Carmel Sepuloni did an exceptional job in Waitakere, picking up 10 places while managing to pip National's Paula Bennett at the post for the electoral seat.

Biggest decrease in Party Vote by Electorate

Rank Electorate Candidate Party (%) Change
21 Rongotai KING, Annette 34.31 -5
32 Nelson STREET, Maryan 27.50 -5
18 Waiariki TE KANI, Louis 34.80 -7
20 Dunedin North CLARK, David 34.49 -7
62 Selwyn McLEAN, Jo 16.02 -7
17 Dunedin South CURRAN, Clare 35.02 -8
45 Waimakariri COSGROVE, Clayton 23.53 -8
67 Tauranga MAHUTA-COYLE, Deborah 14.60 -8
19 Te Tai Tokerau DAVIS, Kelvin 34.60 -9
24 Christchurch East DALZIEL, Lianne 31.54 -12

Lianne Dalziel and Clayton Cosgrove both dropped down the rankings in their Christchurch electorates, on the back of National's positive policy for rebuilding Christchurch.

Labour Party Vote by Electorate – Full Results

Rank Electorate Candidate Party (%) Change
38 Auckland Central ARDERN, Jacinda 26.18 -2
69 Bay of Plenty DEVOY-HEENA, Carol 13.34 -2
46 Botany WU, Chao-Fu 23.51 +10
29 Christchurch Central BURNS, Brendon 29.01 -3
24 Christchurch East DALZIEL, Lianne 31.54 -12
61 Clutha-Southland LOO, Tat 16.15 -3
56 Coromandel KININMONTH, Hugh 17.91 -2
20 Dunedin North CLARK, David 34.49 -7
17 Dunedin South CURRAN, Clare 35.02 -8
44 East Coast MACKEY, Moana 23.67 -3
58 East Coast Bays GOLDSMITH, Vivienne 17.04 +4
66 Epsom PARKER, David 15.28 +2
42 Hamilton East ORGAD, Sehai 24.38 +2
28 Hamilton West MORONEY, Sue 29.05 +3
5 Hauraki-Waikato MAHUTA, Nanaia 46.49 -1
68 Helensville GREENBROOK-HELD, Piers Jeremy 13.88 +2
65 Hunua HILLS, Richard 15.45 +4
16 Hutt South MALLARD, Trevor 35.25 -1
4 Ikaroa-Rawhiti HOROMIA, Parekura 49.53 -1
54 Ilam PARSONS, John 19.07 -1
30 Invercargill SOPER, Lesley 28.71 n/c
53 Kaikoura COLLYNS, Liz 19.88 -2
11 Mana FAAFOI, Kris 37.38 +3
1 Mangere SIO, Sua William 71.21 n/c
2 Manukau East ROBERTSON, Ross 65.56 n/c
3 Manurewa WALL, Louisa 55.85 +2
13 Maungakiekie BEAUMONT, Carol 36.78 +12
12 Mt Albert SHEARER, David 37.34 +6
6 Mt Roskill GOFF, Phil 43.16 +11
27 Napier NASH, Stuart 29.16 +5
32 Nelson STREET, Maryan 27.50 -5
15 New Lynn CUNLIFFE, David 36.34 +7
40 New Plymouth LITTLE, Andrew 25.62 +2
60 North Shore CLARK, Ben 16.24 +3
41 Northcote GILLON, Paula 24.80 +6
57 Northland STEWART, Lynette 17.18 n/c
37 Ohariu CHAUVEL, Charles 26.32 +2
26 Otaki FOSTER, Peter 29.39 +3
55 Pakuranga KAUSHAL, Sunny 18.32 +6
22 Palmerston North LEES-GALLOWAY, Iain 33.75 -1
39 Papakura MIKA, Jerome 26.10 +9
31 Port Hills DYSON, Ruth 27.69 -3
35 Rangitata BLANCHARD, Julian 27.07 -1
50 Rangitikei PAGANI, Josie 20.89 +2
23 Rimutaka HIPKINS, Chris 32.92 -3
70 Rodney ROSE, Christine 13.23 -4
21 Rongotai KING, Annette 34.31 -5
48 Rotorua CHADWICK, Steve 21.64 -2
62 Selwyn McLEAN, Jo 16.02 -7
59 Tamaki BAKULICH, Nick Iusitini 16.98 +6
8 Tamaki Makaurau JONES, Shane 41.35 -1
64 Taranaki-King Country BARKER, Rick 15.59 n/c
52 Taupo CAMPBELL, Frances 20.02 -3
67 Tauranga MAHUTA-COYLE, Deborah 14.60 -8
10 Te Atatu TWYFORD, Phil 37.98 +9
7 Te Tai Hauauru PEKE-MASON, Soraya Waiata 42.36 -1
19 Te Tai Tokerau DAVIS, Kelvin 34.60 -9
9 Te Tai Tonga TIRIKATENE, Rino 38.88 -1
43 Tukituki HAYDON-CARR, Julia 23.77 -3
18 Waiariki TE KANI, Louis 34.80 -7
63 Waikato SUTTON, Kate 16.01 -3
45 Waimakariri COSGROVE, Clayton 23.53 -8
47 Wairarapa BOTT, Michael 23.14 -4
14 Waitakere SEPULONI, Carmel 36.47 +10
49 Waitaki MONKS, Barry 21.60 -4
36 Wellington Central ROBERTSON, Grant 26.51 -1
33 West Coast-Tasman O'CONNOR, Damien 27.43 +5
34 Whanganui McDOUALL, Hamish 27.33 -1
51 Whangarei NEWMAN, Pat 20.12 -1
25 Wigram WOODS, Megan 30.67 -2
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