Elections 2011 - Act Party Vote

Wednesday, 30 November 2011 by Andrew McMillan

Don_BrashIt all went wrong for the Act Party earlier in the year when the leader at the time, Rodney Hide, lost the confidence of his caucus. Don Brash, sniffing an opportunity, successfully executed an extraordinary leadership coup from outside of the party.

With Act's initial resurgence in the polls on the wane, Brash gave a key speech in which he outlined his preference for the decriminalisation of cannabis. It was at odds with Act's policy and in stark contrast with the views of his key Epsom candidate, John Banks.

With Banks on the ropes, Prime Minister John Key joined him for the infamous cup of tea, to give National supporters in Epsom the message to vote for Banks. It may have got Banks over the line, but I'd suggest it further damaged Act's brand. Nationally Act went from 3.65% of the party vote and five seats in Parliament following the 2008 election, to just 1.07% and only the one seat in Parliament following the current election.

Many commentators see this as the end of the road for Act, but I'm not convinced. For a small party they have a relatively strong structure and with Brash departing there's certainly a chance of a rebuild.

Note that the following analysis is based 2008 data and preliminary results from the 2011 election.

Biggest Party Vote by Electorate

Rank Electorate Candidate Party (%) Change
1 Epsom BANKS, John 2.57 +7
2 Tamaki BOSCAWEN, John 2.45 n/c
3 North Shore BRASH, Don 1.97 n/c
4 Waikato BOOM, Robin 1.96 +3
5 Clutha-Southland NICOLSON, Don 1.86 +18
6 Pakuranga SIMMONS, Chris 1.81 -2
7 Whangarei GRIEVE, Robin 1.75 +17
8 Northland BRILL, Barry 1.67 +10
9 Botany MURPHY, Lyn 1.66 +3
10 East Coast Bays HUTTON, Toby 1.56 n/c

Banks' efforts returned Act's highest party vote in Epsom, although it's a marked reduction from the 6.22% that Rodney Hide achieved in 2008. Other notable performances include Clutha-Southland, Whangarei and Northland.

Smallest Party Vote by Electorate

Rank Electorate Candidate Party (%) Change
61 Mana WARREN, Michael 0.47 -6
62 Christchurch East   0.34 -2
63 Mangere COSTELLO, Casey 0.33 n/c
64 Te Tai Tokerau   0.24 +3
65 Hauraki-Waikato   0.23 +1
66 Ikaroa-Rawhiti   0.21 +3
67 Te Tai Tonga   0.18 -2
68 Tamaki Makaurau   0.15 -4
69 Waiariki   0.14 +1
70 Te Tai Hauauru   0.14 -2

It's no surprise to see the Maori seats performing the poorest for Act.

Biggest increase in Party Vote by Electorate

Rank Electorate Candidate Party (%) Change
19 Invercargill CARLINE, Ian 1.24 +26
5 Clutha-Southland NICOLSON, Don 1.86 +18
22 Bay of Plenty   1.17 +18
7 Whangarei GRIEVE, Robin 1.75 +17
24 Tauranga McCABE, Kath 1.16 +17
25 Kaikoura EVANS, Richard 1.15 +13
45 West Coast-Tasman BIRCHFIELD, Allan 0.83 +11
8 Northland BRILL, Barry 1.67 +10
39 East Coast NORVILL, John 0.94 +9
23 Taupo JOLLANDS, Rosanne 1.17 +9

Rankings for the deep south improved over others, suggesting that good work was done by both Candidates there.

Biggest decrease in Party Vote by Electorate

Rank Electorate Candidate Party (%) Change
37 Rangitata CORBETT, Tom 1.01 -10
39 New Lynn STEINIJANS, Barbara 0.95 -10
18 Helensville KEARNEY, Nick 1.41 -12
42 Selwyn   0.90 -12
35 Hamilton East MALLETT, Garry 1.03 -13
41 Hamilton West   0.92 -13
16 Hunua CUMMINGS, Ian 1.44 -14
49 Ohariu   1.76 -14
22 Rodney HOULBROOKE, Beth 1.18 -16
33 Papakura THOMPSON, John 1.08 -24

Both urban and rural feature among the electorates with the biggest drop in rankings, reinforcing the view that Act were suffering from a damaged brand as opposed to a switch in policy which might effect one over the other.

Act Party Vote by Electorate – Full Results

Rank Electorate Candidate Party (%) Change
27 Auckland Central SEYMOUR, David 1.14 -7
22 Bay of Plenty   1.17 +19
9 Botany MURPHY, Lyn 1.66 +4
47 Christchurch Central SEVERIN, Toni 0.76 -2
62 Christchurch East   0.34 -2
5 Clutha-Southland NICOLSON, Don 1.86 +18
16 Coromandel   1.41 n/c
51 Dunedin North McCALLUM, Guy 0.70 +5
58 Dunedin South HANNAH, Kimberly 0.59 n/c
39 East Coast NORVILL, John 0.94 +10
10 East Coast Bays HUTTON, Toby 1.56 n/c
1 Epsom BANKS, John 2.57 +7
34 Hamilton East MALLETT, Garry 1.03 -13
40 Hamilton West   0.92 -13
65 Hauraki-Waikato   0.23 +1
17 Helensville KEARNEY, Nick 1.41 -12
15 Hunua CUMMINGS, Ian 1.44 -14
48 Hutt South SPEIRS, Alex 0.72 -5
66 Ikaroa-Rawhiti   0.21 +3
29 Ilam VEALE, Gareth 1.13 -5
19 Invercargill CARLINE, Ian 1.24 +27
25 Kaikoura EVANS, Richard 1.15 +14
61 Mana WARREN, Michael 0.47 -6
63 Mangere COSTELLO, Casey 0.33 n/c
59 Manukau East MACFARLANE, Jonathan 0.56 +3
57 Manurewa PETERSON, David 0.61 -4
20 Maungakiekie   1.20 -6
37 Mt Albert BOYLE, Stephen 0.96 -4
30 Mt Roskill NAND, Pratima 1.10 +4
31 Napier ORMOND, John 1.08 -1
52 Nelson HUFFLETT, Paul Charles 0.70 n/c
38 New Lynn STEINIJANS, Barbara 0.95 -10
35 New Plymouth   1.01 +2
3 North Shore BRASH, Don 1.97 n/c
14 Northcote KRONFELD, Tim 1.47 -3
8 Northland BRILL, Barry 1.67 +11
49 Ohariu   1.76 -14
56 Otaki McCAFFREY, Peter 0.65 -8
6 Pakuranga SIMMONS, Chris 1.81 -2
50 Palmerston North STRATTON, Daniel 0.70 -6
32 Papakura THOMPSON, John 1.08 -23
46 Port Hills RUSSELL, Geoff 0.78 +8
36 Rangitata CORBETT, Tom 1.01 -10
11 Rangitikei FITZGERALD, Hayden 1.52 +7
53 Rimutaka COURTENAY, Alwyn 0.68 -3
21 Rodney HOULBROOKE, Beth 1.18 -15
55 Rongotai LATIMER, Joel 0.65 +4
44 Rotorua   0.84 +3
41 Selwyn   0.90 -12
2 Tamaki BOSCAWEN, John 2.45 n/c
68 Tamaki Makaurau   0.15 -4
12 Taranaki-King Country   1.51 n/c
23 Taupo JOLLANDS, Rosanne 1.17 +9
24 Tauranga McCABE, Kath 1.16 +18
42 Te Atatu COSTELLO, Dominic 0.89 -4
70 Te Tai Hauauru   0.14 -2
64 Te Tai Tokerau   0.24 +3
67 Te Tai Tonga   0.18 -2
13 Tukituki BURNSIDE, Robert 1.50 +4
69 Waiariki   0.14 +1
4 Waikato BOOM, Robin 1.96 +3
60 Waimakariri   0.51 -9
18 Wairarapa ATKINSON, Shane 1.31 -3
43 Waitakere   0.86 -7
28 Waitaki NICHOLLS, Colin 1.13 +3
26 Wellington Central WHITTINGTON, Stephen 1.15 -4
45 West Coast-Tasman BIRCHFIELD, Allan 0.83 +12
33 Whanganui DAVIDSON, Alan Daniel 1.06 +7
7 Whangarei GRIEVE, Robin 1.75 +18
54 Wigram   0.67 +7
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