Elections 2011 - Labour Party Vote

Monday, 12 December 2011 by Andrew McMillan

Phil_GoffLabour's party vote sunk to 27.48% in this election, which is well down on last year's 33.99%. The reason's for their demise can be summed up under the headings of leadership, negative campaigning, the party list, and de-branding.

Phil Goff's leadership leading into and throughout the campaign was poor. His memory and his honesty were constantly called into question and he attacked his opponents in areas which left him open for accusations of hypocrisy.

Instead of concentrating on selling their own campaign, Labour spent the bulk of their time, and advertising money, negatively campaigning on National's policy. There's no doubt that Labour's 'No Asset Sales' campaign stirred up some support, but as often happens with negative campaigning, that support didn't go to the party which was negatively campaigning; instead it went to the Greens and NZ First.

Labour's party list was contentious, even within the ranks of Labour itself. The list presented a party that had not learned from their prior election loss. As a result it saw some sitting MP's who could see their only chance of getting back in  via their electoral seat, drop campaigning for the party vote altogether.

So let's take a look at Labour's party vote support by electorate. Note that the following analysis is based 2008 data and preliminary results from the 2011 election.

Biggest Party Vote by Electorate

Rank Electorate Candidate Party (%) Change
1 Mangere SIO, Sua William 71.21 n/c
2 Manukau East ROBERTSON, Ross 65.56 n/c
3 Manurewa WALL, Louisa 55.85 +2
4 Ikaroa-Rawhiti HOROMIA, Parekura 49.53 -1
5 Hauraki-Waikato MAHUTA, Nanaia 46.49 -1
6 Mt Roskill GOFF, Phil 43.16 +11
7 Te Tai Hauauru PEKE-MASON, Soraya Waiata 42.36 -1
8 Tamaki Makaurau JONES, Shane 41.35 -1
9 Te Tai Tonga TIRIKATENE, Rino 38.88 -1
10 Te Atatu TWYFORD, Phil 37.98 +9

Sua William Sio had an outstanding result in Mangere, picking up 71.2% of the party vote, up 9.6% from 2008. Although this rise can be ascribed to the demise of Taito Phillip Field and his Pacific Party (which gained 10.7% of the party vote in 2008).

Labour's traditional powerhouse seats in South Auckland and the Maori seats feature in the top ten. Two notable improvers include Labour Party Leader Phil Goff and Te Atatu's Phil Twyford. More...